Partisanship

Last week in Northern Virginia, a radio show asked callers why conservatives have preferred Fred Thompson even though he has stayed outside the race.  The host rightly pointed out that Thompson has not yet debated any of the current candidates; he has not offered any unique opinions; and his internet and financial campaigns aren't remarkable.

Every caller said virtually the same thing.  They said that Fred "felt better" than the rest, or that he seemed wiser and more consistent.  All these answers are wrong.

The right answer is very simple: Fred Thompson is much more conservative than Giuliani, Romney and McCain and has a legitimate chance of winning where Brownback, Hunter, Huckabee and Tancredo do not.

Reviewing Thompson's voting record in the Senate yields conservatives an instant comfort for his political ideals.  His record shows zero fluctuation in a decades-long commitment to limit federal government and increase states' rights.  In 1995, he even voted to repeal federal speed limits.  The only part of his voting record that could be viewed poorly is his support of campaign finance reform, which was favored by many other Republicans.

Campaign finance reform is a side issue to the minority of voters that even understand what it is.  The conservative base cares much more deeply about the fundamentals – taxes, immigration, Iraq, abortion and gun control – then about campaign finance.   And none of Thompson's serious competitors cover all of those issues like he does.

On abortion and gun control, Giuliani either takes a liberal position, or is weak.  McCain supported immigration amnesty.  Romney is awkwardly inconsistent on abortion and taxes; and, to some degree, that is worse as the electorate has grown tired of unreliable politicians.

Come voting time, the campaign finance blotch on Thompson's record won't matter anyway because Giuliani, McCain and Romney all supported McCain-Feingold as well.  Voters, bent on cracking skulls over campaign finance, would have to go all the way to Brownback, Hunter or Tancredo to find something they liked.

Thompson has other appealing mannerisms.  The charisma from his acting days shows plainly, and he speaks with the same Southern sincerity that won elections for Bill Clinton.

But there's something missing for Fred.  He has no record of leadership experience or executive history.  Thompson has been a Senator and before that, like so many other Congressmen, a lawyer.

Many voters feel more comfortable electing governors to be president, and well they should.

Governors, on a smaller scale, do the very same things a President does for the nation.  They oversee the police.  They run a military.  They work with legislatures and suggest (or veto) legislation.  They grant pardons.  They manage cabinets.

A serious case could be made to only allow former governors to run for the Presidency.  Many businesses have a management policy that heavily favors promoting from within.  The idea is that managers increase in value as their knowledge and experience with the company's products grow.  An executive who has been promoted from within has significantly more working knowledge of the business, not to mention baked-in emotional support.

The American electorate could judge the results of a former governor the very same way, deciding who did the best job at the state level and promoting him up the ladder to run the nation.  With a pool of fifty current governors and hundreds of former ones, changing every few years, there would be plenty of valuable selections.

It is highly unlikely that this formula will be adopted, but plenty of voters still favor former governors over former congressmen.

This works against Fred Thompson.

Romney was a very good governor by any objective standard.  He balanced the budget, lowered the unemployment rate and secured a market-based health care package for the uninsured.

Giuliani was never a governor, but as mayor of New York City he handled most of the same things.  New York City is, on its own, the fourth largest economy in the United States.  The vast majority of US governors have significantly less to deal with in any year of their administration than Giuliani had in any month of his.  With 9/11, he presided over a larger problem than any governor has ever faced and handled it mightily.

Fred's highest profile moment was during the Watergate hearings, now lost in the annals of history.  Any voters that do remember it will also remember that he was a mere assistant in the proceedings.  In the Senate, he authored very little so leadership was avoided there.

Fred has led on television, of course, playing a number of businessmen, Presidents and military commanders; and that does count for something.  National polls indicate that 40% of voters judge candidates purely on recognition.  It would be unwise to discount his film and television roles as noncontributing.

When Fred threw his hat in the ring on Friday night, Mitt Romney joked that Fred was being too hasty and should wait a few more months to decide.  Notwithstanding the rancor, Romney's advice was actually correct.

The best thing Thompson had going for him was his ironclad voting record.  That will not improve because he has formally entered the race.  He could have continued town-hopping for the next three months, declared officially at Christmas and made a massive surge through the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.  His market share, throughout the unannounced period, was increasing.  There was no reason to stop that.

Back in January, Thomas Sowell grumbled that there were far too many candidates jumping into the race and far too early.  He wanted to go to sleep for a year and wake up when then primaries were sorted out.  That's not bad advice even now.  Waiting to surge at the end would have positioned Fred at a starting point past the fringe candidates and the stagnant leaders.  McCain might have even been gone by then.

Modern voters are fickle.  The Republican field is wide and the candidates are beginning to feel old and spoiled with more than a year to go.  Thompson was the fun and unaccountable Thing Outside The Doldrums throughout the summer.  That is no longer the case.